European wildlife mapping

Through assessing the potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial and coastal biodiversity at the European scale, BRANCH developed transferable techniques for identifying areas vulnerable to climate change (see Annex 2, Final report).

These new techniques confirm that Europe's fragmented landscape is likely to prevent many species moving in the face of climate change. On our coasts, saltmarsh and mudflats will continue to shrink as sea-levels rise, decreasing natural coastal protection.

The approach to BRANCH modelling

• The Environmental Change Institute (University of Oxford), used the SPECIES model to project changes in the potential suitable ‘climate space’ (the location where climate conditions are favourable) for 389 terrestrial and coastal species. To see examples click here.
• Alterra (Wageningen University and Research Centre), then used the GRIDWALK and CENA models to simulate how nine of these species, which are representative of forest, wetland or grassland ecosystems, might move across the landscape in the face of climate change. Partners also looked at how current habitat networks might enable this movement and where action may be needed to reduce barriers. To see the results for the nine species click here.
• For the coast, the University of Southampton used the DIVA model to assess how saltmarsh and mudflats will respond to rising sea levels. In partnership with the University of East Anglia, it devised a new index of coastal habitat vulnerability for North West Europe. This highlights areas where habitats are likely to face the greatest pressures and is a tool for sustainable coastal management. To see examples click here.

This increased identification of the impacts of climate change on European biodiversity and the weaknesses and threats to Natura 2000 and other ecological corridors, can be used to inform conservation management and habitat re-creation policies.

Recommendations to inform conservation management and habitat re-creation policies for:

Europe as a whole

• Give greater recognition in EU Directives to the vulnerability of species to climate change.
• Identify and enhance the main zones that species may use to disperse between Natura 2000 sites, encouraging the development of an European ecological network.
• Maintain intertidal habitats, especially around the Mediterranean, Black and Baltic seas, by creating space for coasts to adapt.
• Compile consistent datasets for coastal habitats to improve strategic assessment and management of the coast.

North West Europe

• Reduce fragmentation by, for example, developing more wetlands and woodlands and enlarging existing ones.
• Identify where new saltmarsh, mudflats and grazing marshes could be created.
• Co-operate across national borders to improve ecological networks in delta areas by combining nature conservation and flood management objectives.
• Develop climate-proof networks at the regional scale for sensitive species by creating conditions for dispersal and reducing the effect of barriers.