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For this case study, the SPECIES model was used indicated which species were likely to decline or disappear, or to appear or remain. The SMALLSTEPS model was then used to analyse how freely wildlife could move between habitats and the LARCH model assessed the sustainability of present and future habitat networks. BRANCH then used this modelling and local expertise to identify bottlenecks and investigate how to design well-connected, climate-proof networks.

Kent

In Kent BRANCH worked with stakeholders to develop a transferable method to design ecological networks as a climate change adaptation strategy (see Annex 4, Final report and Creating Networks for Nature in Kent report). With stakeholders BRANCH partners carried out a four step method:

  1. Choosing indicator species for characteristic Kent habitats
  2. Identifying important habitat networks and suggesting local constraints and opportunities for habitat creation
  3. Producing alternative options for improving and creating habitat networks
  4. Deciding the best option for each habitat and integrating these into an ecological network design for Kent.
Main Image Example of meadow pipit network map. Alterra; designing networks with stakeholders. Alterra; Bechstein's bat sustainability modelling. Alterra

Seven species were selected to assess the effect of climate change on the abundance and sustainability of species in the future and to see how the landscape can be adapted for biodiversity:

Wet Grassland: Meadow pipit (Anthus pratensis)
Dartford warbler (Sylvia undata)
Ponds: Great crested newt (Triturus cristatus)
Heath/Acid grassland: Dartford warbler (Sylvia undata)
Wetland: Cetti's warbler (Cettia cetti)
Woodland: Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechstinii)
Purple emperor (Apatura ris)
Chalk Grassland: Adonis blue (Lysandera bellarus)

For each of these habitats, conclusions and strategies for climate change proof ecosystem networks were developed and are available in Chapter 3, Annex 4 of the projects Final report.

BRANCH modelling showed that Kent's habitats are not sufficiently connected at present to allow some species to adapt to climate change. Ecological networks, such as those developed using the BRANCH design process, are likely to help wildlife adapt. They can be accommodated in the planning process and planners and local stakeholders can collaborate on their design. The involvement of stakeholders will be vital to the ongoing design, success and implementation of the Kent network.

For species where the climate becomes less suitable, planners should concentrate on maintaining sustainable networks, because these prolong the time species can remain locally.

For species where the climate becomes more suitable, planners should aim to maximise colonisation. They should concentrate on adaptation zones that have large areas of suitable habitat and aim to improve connectivity so that species can disperse easily.

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